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> First...

Sure but it's when people get promoted for the wrong reasons everyone gets frustrated.

> Second, there's underlying reality that eventually comes crushing people that fail to meet the expectations that they had built around themselves.

Not in a noisy environment. Stories abound of complete incompetents who take some inadvisable risk, only to find it paid off handsomely.



Well that is genuinely impossible to tell apart. I mean you can always claim that a system or a person is "overfiting", and given enough time and/or data they/it will be proven wrong.




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