I don't see how my comment was mean. At its meanest, I think my comment is dispassionate and pessimistic on a topic that you feel rightly passionate about, similar to how a a YC applicant feels if they don't win an invitation to join.
I think it looks mean to you because you have a high estimation of AirBnB and you think I am belittling them.
I have a lower estimation of AirBnB (compared to my estimation of VRBO), and so I thought your pitch to Fred Wilson was overselling the potential ("eBay") and Fred was right to not buy into the overselling.
Now, there is are significant gaps between
1. AirBnB completely fails as a business and wastes everyone's money, but at least the founders had a learning experience.
2. AirBnB team and pg and the investors and customers make more money and worthwhile experience from AirBnB than any other use of their time and energy and capital.
3. AirBnB gets bigger than VRBO.
4. AirBnB gets as big as eBay.
I'd guess (but I wouldn't bet, because I absolutely to not have the infromation and insight that you and the team and the investors have)
that AirBnB is at least "1.5" now and will peak at "2.5" and need a major lucky streak to hit "3". It's successful, but in my estimation (worthy of no more than a forum post) it is not up to the "eBay" comparison.
Fred guesses now (after he refused to bet, which frankly makes his blog post less interesting than what he wrote when he did have his hand on his wallet) that AirBnB is "3" to "4".
I'll note that my best business venture is a small "1", (capital investment and costs under $1000, weekend labor, revenues smaller than that).
I think it looks mean to you because you have a high estimation of AirBnB and you think I am belittling them.
I have a lower estimation of AirBnB (compared to my estimation of VRBO), and so I thought your pitch to Fred Wilson was overselling the potential ("eBay") and Fred was right to not buy into the overselling.
Now, there is are significant gaps between
1. AirBnB completely fails as a business and wastes everyone's money, but at least the founders had a learning experience.
2. AirBnB team and pg and the investors and customers make more money and worthwhile experience from AirBnB than any other use of their time and energy and capital.
3. AirBnB gets bigger than VRBO.
4. AirBnB gets as big as eBay.
I'd guess (but I wouldn't bet, because I absolutely to not have the infromation and insight that you and the team and the investors have) that AirBnB is at least "1.5" now and will peak at "2.5" and need a major lucky streak to hit "3". It's successful, but in my estimation (worthy of no more than a forum post) it is not up to the "eBay" comparison.
Fred guesses now (after he refused to bet, which frankly makes his blog post less interesting than what he wrote when he did have his hand on his wallet) that AirBnB is "3" to "4".
I'll note that my best business venture is a small "1", (capital investment and costs under $1000, weekend labor, revenues smaller than that).