We have no data for mRNA vaccines except those trials. We don't know if the historical data on traditional vaccines are applicable here. As such, it is also possible that a single dose isn't good enough or a single dose is good enough but only for a couple months. We just don't know and it would be way worse if it turns out we have to re-vaccinate everyone because we were impatient.
> We have no data for mRNA vaccines except those trials. We don't know if the historical data on traditional vaccines are applicable here.
This is not how decision making under uncertainty works. When you don't have rigorous proof of whether something works or doesn't work you have to make educated guesses based on various priors and make the percentage play. You can't refuse to incorporate priors into your decision making just because you don't have a peer reviewed p<0.05 study validating it.
Uncertainty about the result cuts both ways. You can't claim that we can't do X over Y because we don't have rigorous proof that X is better than Y, when we don't have rigorous proof that Y is better than X either. Regardless of what you do you're taking a leap of faith.
> We just don't know and it would be way worse if it turns out we have to re-vaccinate everyone because we were impatient.
If there's probability p that it doesn't work and we have to spend X extra months re-vaccinating everyone that's an expected delay of p * X. But if it does work then not pursuing the single dose strategy will delay the vaccination schedule by X' months also.
If p * X < (1-p) * X' then the former is a perfectly acceptable risk.
I personally try to make decisions using probability. I understand where you are coming from but there is one factor missing in your analysis: this situation is literally life and death. That changes the math a bit to something more akin to "better safe than sorry" in my opinion. We have found a guaranteed path out of this mess. There may be other faster paths that save more lives, but it could also end up killing millions more too. I'm all for experimenting but I take issue with making the experiment the policy when lives are on the line.
We DO have a good understanding of the human immune system, and how the mRNA vaccines interact with it. The effectiveness shown in the trials confirm those theories.
Sure, there could be some odd unforeseen effect. If so we'd learn as we go.
> it would be way worse if it turns out we have to re-vaccinate everyone
Worse than 3000 people dying every day? Because of the extra expense of making more doses?
> We DO have a good understanding of the human immune system...
As someone who is an active researcher in this field, I can tell you that this is just not true. The immune system is VERY complex and we know very little about it. We have only had the tools to begin to systematically probe it for a few years.
I know what you're getting at in this context, but in reality when you start digging into how the immune system works it's shocking how little is understood about it.
"There’s a joke about immunology, which Jessica Metcalf of Princeton recently told me. An immunologist and a cardiologist are kidnapped. The kidnappers threaten to shoot one of them, but promise to spare whoever has made the greater contribution to humanity.
The cardiologist says, “Well, I’ve identified drugs that have saved the lives of millions of people.” Impressed, the kidnappers turn to the immunologist. “What have you done?” they ask.
The immunologist says, “The thing is, the immune system is very complicated …”
