Actually, that's fairly consistent for pg. As he notes later in the interview, he believes that a startup's founders matter more than the idea as good founders will improve upon or drop a bad idea.
I think that was exactly the heuristic pg used in this case. He may not think GroupOn is best company in its current form, but he believes that Andrew Mason's smart and driven and is thus capable of evolving GroupOn into a solid and profitable business.
I think betting on the founder breaks down as a company grows to a certain point.
Steering a small startup is one thing. Steering a 10k person public company is entirely different.
I doubt Steve Jobs at age 26 could have saved Apple from impending doom in 1996. Even at age 41, with all his additional skill/experience, it was far from easy for him.
Yeah, the overlap of people who are good at doing something from nothing and the group of people who are good at managing a large organization is probably pretty small. Bill Gates and Steve Jobs come to mind.
That said, from PG's point of view as an investor, the important thing is to get to an exit, and hope that for the sake of the company, part of what makes the founders 'good' is the ability to recognize when it's time to step aside.
Maybe, maybe not. I honestly don't have enough info to feel I can make an assertion either way. My gut does say, however, that many of the same traits are required of both startup CEOs and 10k employee public company CEOs. The challenges are indisputably different, but a CEO who's tenacious, intelligent, creative and driven will find ways to surmount any challenge whether it's hiring the first employee or executing a billion dollar take-over.
Fair questions: would Apple be facing impending doom in 1996 if Jobs hadn't been ousted and instead been allowed to lead his company? Would that Apple be as successful today?
> I think betting on the founder breaks down as a company grows to a certain point.
And even if it doesn't, having a good intuition about people and particular acquaintance with the founder in question are prerequisites to using the technique. A lot of experience with startup founders in particular is also really important.
I think that was exactly the heuristic pg used in this case. He may not think GroupOn is best company in its current form, but he believes that Andrew Mason's smart and driven and is thus capable of evolving GroupOn into a solid and profitable business.