Massive investments in renewables, capping your personal energy budget to something reasonable rather than what you can afford from a financial perspective, aiming for energy neutrality in buildings (doable, I've seen demonstration setups in the early 2000's).
And even then: we can no longer avoid climate change, you can take that to the bank. The very best we can do is limit the impact of the climate change that is inevitable now.
"capping your energy budget" is a non-starter. I oppose it, the majority opposes it, and this is a good way of getting kicked out of power and then having even your realistic policies rolled back. Unless you're the type of person who enjoys being right rather than being effective, you'll make reasonable proposals that have a chance of being enacted, rather than unreasonable proposals that lose elections.
The future is one of cheap, abundant energy, that is growing in use. It is one of increasing industrialization and output. Increasing consumption and production. If you can't find a way to get there, then you'll be left behind as the rest of the world chooses a different path.
Yes, god forbid we would enact realistic policies. No, instead, let's stick our heads in the sand and kick the bucket down the road a generation. That's worked so well so far.
Elections are great, right up to the point where you are going to have to make very harsh decisions affecting the majority. I predict our democratic institutions will be a casualty of climate change long before we will allow ourselves to become overwhelmed by climate change itself.
Capping total energy usage is not realistic. It's never happened in human history. It's not going to happen in the future. No one in any position of power has even proposed it.
You are putting your head in the sand if you think that this is what will happen.
GDP will grow. Energy usage per capita will grow. Technology will increase. Output and consumption will increase. That is what we do, as a species, as we try to improve our condition. Trying to say that "oh, we'll just stop and cap energy use" is not only unrealistic, but it's impossible to achieve, because any nation that does that will just be outcompeted by rival nations that don't. Then people will flee to the sane nation while the insane nation collapses.
I get that some people on the green fringe don't like industrialization, but opposing rising living standards, rising output, all of which require rising energy usage, is always a losing proposition.
> Capping total energy usage is not realistic. It's never happened in human history.
In a sense, it has happened, but not in the form of an explicit mandate but just due to pre-existing technological and economic trends. Here is a graph of "Primary Energy Consumption per capita" for various countries, showing that the EU, US, and Canada have all passed their peak:
I've done alright. But capital markets are usually much more sane than internet message boards, so it's not like there is a lot of financial opportunity by saying obvious things, it's only when you meet someone steeped in irreality that telling the truth becomes a radical act.
Offloading the problem to the consumer. If you want power continuity then you will have to provide it yourself. If you want reliable power that will be available but a significant premium over the unreliable version, and there will be a limited supply of that reliable power.
Pumped storage where available will help a lot, grid scale battery systems are nowhere near powerful enough to take on a significant fraction of the worlds powersupply so we'll have to make do.
Rationing of critical resources has many historical precedents, it's time we realized that power is not infinitely available at will, even though we would very much like it to be that way.
> If you want reliable power that will be available but a significant premium over the unreliable version, and there will be a limited supply of that reliable power.
Ah yes. What a libertarian view of the world. The rich will get the power while the unfortunate ones won't even be able to refrigerate their food. Medical equipment will fail. People will freeze in winter. Trains will not run. etc.
Also. How do you propose to separate reliable and non-reliable energy sources? By building a parallel energy grid?
How is this a realistic policy?
> Rationing of critical resources has many historical precedents, it's time we realized that power is not infinitely available at will
It's not unlimited. However, it's not as scarce and limited as you want to make it.
It's not libertarian at all, it is simply realistic. Keep in mind that the power grid as it is today is already unreliable, it's just that we've started to think about it as 100% available. But there are many reasons why it can - and often does - fail and we have build our processes around that.
Just like we do not need a separate grid for green energy we do not need one for reliable and unreliable sources, case in point: we already use reliable and unreliable sources right now, it's just that we do not bill differently for them.
As for medical equipment, refrigeration and trains: it is clear that some consumption will need to be sourced from reliable sources or at least sources with sufficient overlap during generation that their chance of failure is small.
Power is not as scarce and unlimited as I believe it well may become in the near future, and if you look at this through a slightly wider lens (developing world vs developed world) then you'll see that in many countries this situation is a reality today, but instead of being billed differently and given a choice the power will simply fail.
> Just like we do not need a separate grid for green energy we do not need one for reliable and unreliable sources, case in point: we already use reliable and unreliable sources right now
That really doesn't answer how you would solve your own proposal. Let me quote it again: "If you want power continuity then you will have to provide it yourself. If you want reliable power that will be available but a significant premium over the unreliable version, and there will be a limited supply of that reliable power."
So. How are you going to solve that? You either make the entire grid reliable, or you make the entire grid unreliable. There's no "both".
The most simple scenario: two neighboring houses on the same grid. One "is paying premium for reliable power continuity". The other is paying cheaply. HOw are you going to provide one with reliable power, and the other one with unreliable on the same grid?
> it is clear that some consumption will need to be sourced from reliable sources or at least sources with sufficient overlap during generation that their chance of failure is small.
They are on the same grid as everybody else. So you are proposing to build a parallel electrical grid?
> you'll see that in many countries this situation is a reality today, but instead of being billed differently and given a choice the power will simply fail.
I come from Moldova. It's been reliably the poorest country in Europe for the past 30 years. For the past 20 years it hasn't had any rolling blackouts. The US had rolling blackouts in California in 2000-2001 and in Texas in 2021.
Power availability and reliability in the modern world is first and foremost the function of corruption and political will.
- it is a parallel grid for all intents and purposes. Because you will have to supply literally every apartment, every house, every building (and parts of buildings) with smart meters.
It's also funny how you don't see beyond this already weird decision. Example from actual reality: TV Pickup [1]. "A phenomenon in the United Kingdom that involves surges in demand on the electrical grid, occurring when a large number of people simultaneously watch the same television programme. TV pickup occurs when viewers take advantage of commercial breaks in programming to operate electrical appliances at the same time, causing large synchronised surges in national electricity consumption"
That's just kettles and microwaves.
Now, with smart meters you've powered down "cheapskates". When we have more power, we now... bring entire households back online. Good luck handling that
- it is a libertarian view: The rich will get the power while the unfortunate ones won't even be able to refrigerate their food. Medical equipment will fail. People will freeze in winter. Trains will not run. etc.
I don't know where you live, but where I'm living they seem to be standard now. By law. With few exceptions. Though the ones in the House I'm living in are continously blinking "E-21", so I'd guess their uplink is down, and they can't do FTP.
I'm just telling how it is. Not what I like, or support.
> I don't know where you live, but where I'm living
Exactly. There's a lot you don't know.
> I'm just telling how it is.
You're not telling it "how it is". You're telling a fantasy and calling it "realistic policies".
You didn't even know about things like TV Pickup, did you? And you can't even imagine how your "realistic policies" would affect the grid.
You didn't even know that smart meters are not everywhere.
You didn't think how selling "good power" only to the rich would affect everyone. (Oh, right, anyone who won't be able to afford it are just cheapskates).
Yup. "Just how it is".
> so I'd guess their uplink is down, and they can't do FTP.
Ah yes. Great smart meters that should be installed in the millions and people should rely on them to properly turn off and turn on gigawatts of power in the blink of an eye.
Dude...chill! Did I get you on the wrong foot somehow?
Of course I know about effects like TV-Pickup, though I don't have TV since 1996.
Maybe I should have marked it as sarcasm?
Furthermore I also know that smart meters aren't everywhere, but I've been aware of them for a long time, and also of regions where they've been installed before they got installed here.
What can I say? I'm living the fucking cyberpunk dystopy where corporations make the rules, politicians are fools, but most people are too, so it actually IS some form of democracy, because it represents the majority, otherwise they wouldn't have elected the fools.
So. How it is... I know about blinking E-21 because I had to walk into the cellar to read the meter and email the counter value to my utility a few days ago.
Anything else? Do you want to have fries with that?
> Dude...chill! Did I get you on the wrong foot somehow?
Sorry, I should've looked at the nickname, but it's been a long thread. I thought it was jacquesm answering me :)
> Of course I know about effects like TV-Pickup
So imagine how you turn off entire households and then bring them online in one sweep as soon as "reliable power" comes on. How do you propose to handle that?
> So. How it is... I know about blinking E-21 because I had to walk into the cellar to read the meter and email the counter value to my utility a few days ago.
So:
- a smart meter that cannot upload something to a remote FTP server
- and a system that's supposed to turn off "cheapskates" if there isn't "reliable power"
Ah, this will work just wonderfully, and reliably.
> Ah yes, disaster thrillers are the source of knowledge and truth we should turn to. Because, as you put it, "it's telling as it is"?
It was actually a suggestion, to have with the fries, but not fully jokingly, because it reads in good way and does need NO suspension of disbelief. Not that it would be my source of knowledge of the subject, k?
By telling as it is I referred to what is here, what I'm aware of elsewhere, not that it would be unconditionally and universally so. Just that it is a trend and a desire of the involved governments, industries, bizniks and utilities.
> a smart meter that cannot upload something to a remote FTP server
In this case YOU don't know why that is. Maybe someone who is wary of such systems spoke with his lawyers and protested? So smart meters are installed but not linked, pending on judgement of several things, the principle as such, because 'the smarts' are wasting energy, the reliability and security of the things, and their accuracy. As long as my insurance pays, or it is decided against. Which is likely.
It's already like that if you look at it on a country-by-country basis, and rolling blackouts have been a thing for a long time even in developed countries, even if their use is for a different reason.
And in combination with an energy budget it's more a matter of whether you need continuity or if you can get by and save some money. I've lived in places where energy delivery was flaky an intermittent and everybody gets by, the only problem is with industrial processes that are hard or even impossible to restart, for everybody else continuity can be optional, especially if there is some possible prediction of when it will be available and when it will not.
It seems a bit peculiar to respond to the question "how can we avoid climate change without nuclear energy?" by advocating renewables and then following that with "we can no longer avoid climate change." Maybe we can avoid climate change with nuclear energy even though we can't without it. And even if we can't avoid it under any circumstances, maybe we can mitigate the net negative consequences more effectively with nuclear than without.
We can't avoid it. We will be able to mitigate, and nuclear will help with mitigation, but it's a means to an end, and not 'our best bet', just one of many bets, and hopefully one that will pay off in time. But weighing the alternatives of investing every $ into renewables rather than into nuclear for a much more immediate pay-off is a difficult matter, hence the all-out push of the nuclear lobby. And as for the 'solar and wind' lobby, it exists, but is far less powerful.
I can just as easily ask: “how do we accomplish it with nuclear?”
The answer—off course—is the same in either case. We build the infrastructure. Renewables and nuclear both require a tremendous amount of infrastructure. Much of this infrastructure would even be the same in either case since we need to move from fossil fuel power to electricity (e.g. electrify rail lines, build high speed train, etc.)
There is off course difference in the electricity generation. Nuclear relies on building really big and expensive plants in locations far away from the consumption. Each design is unique and will take a while from plan to delivery. Renewables on the other hand, have the benefits of diversity of design. It can be distributed and centralized, build far away or close to consumption.
It seems to me that if you want to avoid the climate disaster, doing it without nuclear is actually the easier/more realistic option.
We know nuclear provides baseline power, but we don’t know how renewables can do so. Therefore, it makes sense to go with what is already known than to hope investments in renewable will work for baseline power.
But what we need is not baseline power, it’s load following power. And both nuclear and renewables struggle with this.
Nuclear can solve this by overbuilding and reducing power output at non-peak times. Renewables by overbuilding by and augmenting with storage. Both are proven technologies, both are expensive. I don’t really see that nuclear has an advantage here.
> Overbuilding renewables doesn't help with baseline either.
Yes it does. It means that at times when production is reduced (e.g. cloudy days or not-very-windy or only-windy-in-some-places days) then you can still generate enough power to cover baseline load.
> What storage? There's no storage that can hold enough power to offset times when renewables are not working.
What kind of timescales do you have in mind here. From what I've seen, 6 hours worth of storage would cover 95% of use cases here. Especially if we could be more aggressive about scheduling load around times with abundant generation. We'd still need a backup for the occasional times where you get a few days in row of low production, but this doesn't happen very often at all (every few years) so we could look to solutions like biofuels here, or simply adding extra storage for critical use cases and shutting everything else down.
> What kind of timescales do you have in mind here. From what I've seen, 6 hours worth of storage would cover 95% of use cases here.
Ah yes, the good old "640 k should be enough for everyone".
From November 2020 to January 2021 Stockholm region had less than one hour of sunlight. Yes. This is on top of the fact that in mid-December there's a total of 4 hours of daylight per day.
So, let's pretend Stockholm is 100% powered by renewables. So, to live through that Stockholm would need? Triple the amount of wind farms just in case? Or triple the amount of solar panels to "still generate baseload"? Or to hope that neighbors have excess power they can spare, and import that?
And don't forget: solar and wind are extremely ineffecient compared to almost anything else. It takes 630 square kilometers in an open sea to produce less power than the smallest operational nuclear plant in France (Hornsea Project One vs. Saint-Laurent Nuclear Power Station).
> We'd still need a backup for the occasional times where you get a few days in row of low production, but this doesn't happen very often at all
This happens literally all the time. There are both daily and seasonal fluctuations. And on top of that there is anything from storms and bad weather to maintenance and human errors.
That flaw is by no means inescapable. Renewable energy is cheap, so it doesn’t matter if you can’t store it efficiently. If you loose 75% of the energy by storage you can just make 4 times the amount to compensate. So the answer here is still the same: Infrastructure. Note we also have unexplored battery technology which might make storing more efficient in the future so really the answer here is primarily infrastructure (but also research and technology).
And the same goes for the lack of baseline. A flaw yes, but not so inescapable. You can diversify the grid with distributed, stored, and centralized power, each can compensate for the flaws in the other. You can capture wind off shore, dam for hydro in the mountains, and build whole bunch of solar in the desert. You can connect different climates with high voltage power lines such that if one area experiences low solar and low wind at the same time for weeks at a time, excess power generated from adjacent regions could compensate.
> Renewable energy is cheap, so it doesn’t matter if you can’t store it efficiently.
What does being cheap have to do with availability?
If there's no wind, you won't have that cheap energy from wind turbines. If there's no sun, you won't have that cheap energy from solar. When you have neither, there goes your energy grid.
> You can connect different climates with high voltage power lines such that if one area experiences low solar and low wind at the same time for weeks at a time, excess power generated from adjacent regions could compensate
Ah, yes. Because "neighboring regions" are immediately adjacent, and have immediate power availability and enough of it to cover any levels of power consumption for weeks on end.
Sorry, you are conflating my arguments. Being cheap doesn’t solve the availability problem, I never claimed that. Being cheap means that you can solve the issue with poor storage efficiency with more infrastructure. I.e. compensating for the inefficiency of storage is not an inescapable flaw of renewables.
Your other point still stands though, renewables are not as robust as nuclear. But the answer is still infrastructure. It just needs to be more diverse then nuclear. With nuclear you still have a problem of demand above baseline, so you need infrastructure to deal with that. Renewables have the same problem except sometimes the baseline it self drops. The answer is the same you build infrastructure that can handle such drops. And that infrastructure is the same as for the problem of demand over baseline in nuclear, storage and more power production elsewhere with a robust grid.
> Sorry, you are conflating my arguments. Being cheap doesn’t solve the availability problem, I never claimed that.
I mean, you kinda did. Quote: "Renewable energy is cheap, so it doesn’t matter if you can’t store it efficiently."
Yes, it does. It does matter that you can't store it efficiently.
> With nuclear you still have a problem of demand above baseline, so you need infrastructure to deal with that.
With renewables you already have the problem with the baseline. I love how you just dismiss this as not being a problem.
> Renewables have the same problem except sometimes the baseline it self drops.
Exactly. In addition to having the problem of demand above baseline, they also have a problem that their baseline is zero.
> The answer is the same you build infrastructure that can handle such drops.
You can't solve a baseline of zero with more infrastructure. What you're basically saying is "every country has to have enough renewables to always be able to cover any amount of demand for any of their neighbours for any length of time." This simply doesn't work, and is not scalable in any shape or form.
Additionally, renewable energy is unbelievably inefficient in comparison, and it's extremely hard to "just" build more infrastructure for it.
The largest offshore windfarm that provides 1.2TW of energy covers an area of 630 square kilometers in the North Sea. That's less than Frances smallest operational nuclear reactor (1.8 TW).
And all of those 630 kilometers? Their baseline is exactly zero (if there's no wind). That nuclear reactor? Its baseline is effectively 1.8 TW 24/7.
We don’t need to choose between these options. We can avoid climate change without nuclear energy