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Disclaimer: I like Linux. Also very speculative.

While people argue over distributions, Gnome 3 is the silent winner. You may not see it now, but in ~2 years the choice of distribution will be mostly meaningless. Because finally: Linux is going to be standardized through a unified interface - both beautiful and stable. In fact, in 2 years the only reason people will still be running other operating systems, is because those have the app marketplaces. Why is that? MacOS is already getting cheaper each version, they do not intend to make money with it anymore. It doesn't make sense either, nobody wants to pay more than once for something, and by that, I mean that people expect to run Windows or MacOS on their phones, tablets and everywhere without having to think about something as pesky as a licence. Windows will make money by selling applications and appliances in their Windows Store, it's the freemium model we know from games. In fact, they will make more money than before. Most people don't even know that Office is a paid application suite, now they actually get the opportunity to pay for it. This may seem small, almost idiotic to us programmers but people can't pay for something they don't see. So here we have it again: Linux is going to be behind, but not because it lacks functionality, ease of use or beauty. It will lack apps.



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