You are absolutely correct. No economic prediction is perfectly accurate, therefore they are always at least somewhat inaccurate. So calling them inaccurate is a truism. In reality, some predictions are more valuable than others, based on their evidence, methodology, etc.
Moreover, it doesn't pay to be a hero on Wall Street. Like you hint at here, it's much safer to go with the crowd and be wrong than to go against the crowd and be wrong. That's just a fact of life in business.
Apple not overhiring isn't paying off for Tim Cook personally in terms of compensation terms, but seems to be paying off for that company on Wall Street.
Moreover, it doesn't pay to be a hero on Wall Street. Like you hint at here, it's much safer to go with the crowd and be wrong than to go against the crowd and be wrong. That's just a fact of life in business.