Don’t forget the iPhone wasn’t an instant hit. It got a lot of discussion but it took a few years/versions before it became THE phone. Same with the Apple Watch. And even the iPod didn’t take off until it was on Windows after a few years.
This will likely be similar.
When the iPhone came out, not only was it limited it was $600 and no subsidy at a time most people were getting free camera phones.
It took a while (and a price drop) for people to see enough value to pay the price.
I don't expect the Vision devices to really drop much in price in the coming years. To lower costs, they'll have to go with lower quality displays, or cheaper cameras/sensors and less battery life.
If you look at the iPhone, it hasn't gone down in price much if at all.
I think we're at least 5 years away in terms of tech capability to provide the level of experience Apple is looking for at an "SE iPhone" type price point.
Some will come from mass production lowering costs for components. Some from the components being less cutting edge (and thus cheaper) too.
But I agree it’s not getting cheap soon. Maybe to $2k for the non-pro version (similar to the announcement Vision Pro) in a few years. Maybe even $1500.
You want to pay $500? You’re going to wait a long time.
When Apple releases one of these for $1999, that's the point where they'll be taking the general consumer market seriously. The price of a MacBook Pro.
I think you could get there pretty quickly by cutting out all the AR stuff and making a VR-only "spatial computing" device, but I dunno if that's something they want to do.
I think that would be a mistake and definitely not what they want to do (from their focus on AR in general the last few years).
I think at $1999 for a "base" model, they'll sell millions. I just think that the tech they need to improve (optics and batteries) are hard to miniaturize. Chips and sensors they're the best in the world (in terms of consumer electronics). Batteries are just tough, and despite how good the iPhone is as a camera, it still is easily trounced by dedicated digicams.
This will likely be similar.
When the iPhone came out, not only was it limited it was $600 and no subsidy at a time most people were getting free camera phones.
It took a while (and a price drop) for people to see enough value to pay the price.