> Gwynne Shotwell is he one running SpaceX and she's by all accounts very capable.
For all we know she is "running" SpaceX in the sense that she handles most smaller day-to-day decisions, but there is no evidence that she makes the large and important decisions about Starship and Starlink. All the evidence points to Musk making those decisions. It is even doubtful if she is more capable by herself than Jeff Bezos with Blue Origin, since she hasn't started a large successful company, unlike Bezos. The situation is probably similar for Linda Yaccarino, the new Twitter CEO. For the big decisions, Musk remains in charge.
He is, and the success of SpaceX compared to Blue Origin is explained by the difference between Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.
> You can also be lucky several times.
Yes, but that's very improbable.