I am grievously concerned about the sea temperature being off the charts for a year now and we do not know why. Wasting tremendous amounts of energy to generate bullshit doesn't seem like a prudent action. Yes it's not yet a large chunk of total energy usage but we do need to stop the hype before going further when it'll be.
> You might be surprised to learn that I actually think LLMs have the potential to be not only fun but genuinely useful. “Show me some bullshit that would be typical in this context” can be a genuinely helpful question to have answered, in code and in natural language — for brainstorming, for seeing common conventions in an unfamiliar context, for having something crappy to react to.
> Alas, that does not remotely resemble how people are pitching this technology.
And then of course there are all the ethical concerns.
How about Christmas lights? Washing machines? TV and video entertainment? Elevators for the first floor? How about for the second floor? Social media posts, like these?
The demand for technology leads to advancements that meet our needs. As we continue to innovate, we must focus on consuming more energy rather than less.
You are eager to decide what is useful and what is not. Can you predict the future? Can you predict the full impact of technologies? Can you see second, third and forth order effect? Likely not. For instance, many may not have anticipated the significant role smartphones play today.
It concerns me when some individuals attempt to control others' resource usage, potentially leading to authoritarian rule driven by fear. Such actions might result in adverse effects before any noticeable climate changes occur in the near future.
The counterweight elevator is -- by far -- the most energy efficient way for people to live and be supplied. As in, if you need to supply a few thousand people with food and services then cramming them in high rises and surrounding those with facilities in walking distance will consume the least energy. Even more efficient than moving around on bikes or trams. I do not have the book at hand where this was calculated in painstaking detail but I am not sure a human consumes less energy walking up a floor than the elevator does thanks to said counterweight.
Also, if you need to convince people to live in such circumstances then a little convenience goes rather far so that also needs to be considered.
Modern washing machines are certainly more water efficient than hand washing and I wouldn't be surprised, again, if they would be more energy efficient too. Once again: humans consume energy too. Edit: and as someone else noted, we look should look at the societal effect. Well, it's quite clear the washing machine is an extremely big plus as it automates a time consuming, hard physical task.
So far every order effect of LLMs are terrible as they are built on the backs of exploited workers and are used to further disenfranchise workers and also artists.
> As we continue to innovate, we must focus on consuming more energy rather than less.
> The demand for technology leads to advancements that meet our needs
The things you listed are "wants." Perhaps we could say that washing machines has turned into a need, in much the same way crude oil has. What would the world have been had we tamed nuclear power before oil was commercialized?
> You are eager to decide what is useful and what is not
I think GP is eager to decide what is net beneficial, which is a tradeoff between usefulness and cost (monetary, social, environmental.)
I don't personally care that much about Earth. It's a rock in space, and it will continue existing with our without a functioning ecosystem, but I try to be conservative with my actions, so that the people who do care, may continue enjoying it.
> The demand for technology leads to advancements that meet our needs.
Or does the desire for technology leads to advancements that meet
our wants? Wants versus needs, and desires versus demands get
confusing sometimes.
> It concerns me when some individuals attempt to control others'
resource usage,
From a psychological point of view that's understandable. And it does
portend an ugly authoritarianism. From a realist standing, it's
inevitable if resources are limited. Right now we seem to be limited
by the heat capacity of the planetary ecosphere. To avoid that
becoming an open conflict I think we need to enrich the debate to talk
about appetites rather than needs.
> The demand for technology leads to advancements that meet our needs.
A huge majority of tech advancements are driven by supply rather than demand. Capitalism and modern economics pushes companies to build whatever they can market and sell, they aren't designing new products and tech because consumers already asked for it.
> I am grievously concerned about the sea temperature being off the charts for a year now and we do not know why
The hypothesis I've seen that makes the most sense is that enforcement of ultra low sulfur diesel for marine shipping caused the sea temperature rise [1]. I don't remember which podcast it was now or I would link it, but I first heard this a couple months ago from a researcher who is concerned that this quick rise in sea levels combined with the start of an El Niño this year will lead to a very hot summer with more unpredictable weather.
Anecdotally, weather predictions in my area (south eastern US) have been absolute trash. My best guess is that prediction models are way off now based on changes in underlying conditions the models never had to account for.
Surely, LLM's can be something other than either the coming of singularity or spam generation? In fact, much of the current use of LLM's today do not fall into either fostering the singularity or generating spam.
Personally, I think LLM's have a place but need supervision for the foreseeable future. In case there are diminishing returns on the horizon, we might need a new AI breakthrough to go further than what we have. But I am absolutely helped in my job by AI assistance. Key is however to understand the system well enough to realize when something is off. Engineers won't be wholly replaced by AI anytime soon, but many can already be helped by them.
HN is also full of non-technical people who start companies and can't wait to cut out the technical humans (the most expensive part of their startups) entirely.
