Given how much capital is being invested right now, and how quickly things are improving, it's hard not to imagine cheap robots taking on many jobs that until now have been done by human beings. Much like water always migrates to the lowest accessible point in a lake, jobs always migrate to the lowest-cost option in a market economy.
The hardware is the easy bit (except for hands, but some companies seem to have solved that), but the software is a different story, which is why you see all these staged (some faked - telepresence) videos of laundry folding etc.
Having a humanoid in a factory doing a repetitive task it was trained for is one thing, but having one at home and telling it "go clean up the kids bedroom", or "go put the laundry away", is probably still 20 years in the future.
Given the vision systems we saw from OpenAI yesterday and the one Google will show at I/O today, I'm thinking more like 2 years than 20. Maybe 10 years before they are a commodity that everyone has.
Intelligence, incremental/online learning and autonomy are the things that need to be solved before these would be capable of general tasks in an unstructured setting (e.g. domestic use).
I seriously doubt we'll ever see humanoid form factor robots used in a domestic setting, and even in a factory setting the form factor is basically a gimmick. Why does a factory robot need (or want!) legs when an upper torso on a wheeled base would do the job better?!
It's been 15 years since Google first demoed self driving Prius, and nearly 20 since DARPA Grand Challenge.
All that came to be are small scale testing in couple US cities, and steering wheel stabilization mini computers for mid-to-premium range cars that aren't that better than craft-built implementations from back then.
Make sure to watch the video.
Given how much capital is being invested right now, and how quickly things are improving, it's hard not to imagine cheap robots taking on many jobs that until now have been done by human beings. Much like water always migrates to the lowest accessible point in a lake, jobs always migrate to the lowest-cost option in a market economy.
Like it or not, the robot future is almost here.