Totally ignoring all the specific changes which are very debatable I think the biggest challenge Microsoft has is a significant number of PC owners are already on the fence about buying another PC. The one they have works OK and they have shifted a lot of their day-to-day computing to SmartPhones. Quite a few of them are already at least casually interested in the iPad instead of a new PC. When they look at Windows 8 they have to decide if it's worth investing the time to learn something new in an era when they are using their PC less than ever. It's kind of the perfect storm with a higher barrier of entry and a lower value proposition to the consumer in the end. Tablets are a different situation though I think it's also a huge uphill battle for different reasons.
The scary part is they have unintentionally interweaved the fate of all their different platforms together. If Windows 8 is a huge flop on the desktop who's going to buy a Windows 8 tablet or a Windows Phone? The Metro UI is unique enough that the taint of failure will stick to it. Metro could become the new Clippy. The mere sight of it could make people recoil in horror. No one could exactly tell you why they hated MS Bob, Clippy or Windows Vista. They just knew you were supposed to hate it because everyone hates it. If that happens with Metro Microsoft is looking at another 2-3 year 'reboot' and I just don't think they have that much slack left to work with.
The scary part is they have unintentionally interweaved the fate of all their different platforms together
Scary, but completely intentional.
Windows 8 is Microsoft's last chance to effectively leverage their large PC marketshare into the "post-PC" world of smartphones and tablets. They must aggressively push Metro onto their Desktop users, and hope that once Windows users make a significant investment in the Metro environment on their desktop, they'll naturally choose Metro Tablets and eventually Metro Phones.
And they obviously feel that they do not have the luxury of time. We've never seen them push so much change in so little time.
But if Windows users hate Metro, the word "Metro" will become as toxic as Vista and Zune in the minds of the public. And as we saw with Vista, it really doesn't take much for Microsoft's traditionally conservative Windows users to turn hostile. The transition from XP to Vista was a baby step compared to Metro.
Windows 8 is a crossroads for Microsoft. Do they follow Apple and become an important force in consumer computing and technology, or do they follow IBM and become a profitable but largely invisible business software vendor?
I started off agreeing with you and then things kind of veered off in the other direction.
Yes, the "post-PC" world is what Microsoft is betting on right now. Though I think it should be kept in mind that the launch window between Windows 8 and the Windows 8 tablet isn't going to be very large and while the there will plenty of rancor in the tech industry over the transition, a large percentage of (and maybe even the majority) of casual PC users' first experience with Metro and Windows 8 will most likely be on a tablet (just so we're clear, casual users are people who use computers to mostly go on the internet, check email, do non-tech related small business work like word processing, listen to music and game). It feels to me that this is a very important distinction.
Those who have been afraid to make the jump to an iPad due to the unfamiliarity of the concept will now have a mid-ground to bridge that gap. They have a familiarity with Windows bridged by a new "tablet-like" interface. These people didn't do much work under-the-hood work on their computers, even in the simplest terms, so the lack of familiar control panel mechanisms won't be an issue. So long as the tablet version works, they'll be cool with it.
I also want to add that Microsoft can't follow what Apple has done because they aren't a hardware company. Apple has become what they are based purely on the merits of their hardware manufacturing capabilities, methods, models and the genius/lucky vision of a handful of men. Microsoft doesn't have this luxury and really that is the greatest risk facing Windows 8, because they're going to have a hard time putting together a tablet that's financially competitive with the iPad. Especially with the iPad 2's rumored price drop for the holiday season.
"Post-PC" doesn't mean "sans-PC". PCs will be around for years to come. So if MS wants a big chunk of the future why not building Metro specifically for non-PC units like smartphones, tablets or even TVs and keep Windows for the PC.
Apple did the same thing, they didn't force iOS down the Mac users throat.
> Quite a few of them are already at least casually interested in the iPad
Keep in mind, though, that the median household income in the US is roughly $50k. Apple doesn't make blue collar products. iPads are on the spendy side for a typical family, and they're probably less likely to buy one than a fully functional computer.
Many families have computing needs that are completely satisfied by an ipad, especially if they are in a lower income bracket (that are less likely to be doing PC-required tasks). They are still likely to get a cheap laptop since chatting is much easier with a real keyboard, but something like a Transformer begins to look very good.
The scary part is they have unintentionally interweaved the fate of all their different platforms together. If Windows 8 is a huge flop on the desktop who's going to buy a Windows 8 tablet or a Windows Phone? The Metro UI is unique enough that the taint of failure will stick to it. Metro could become the new Clippy. The mere sight of it could make people recoil in horror. No one could exactly tell you why they hated MS Bob, Clippy or Windows Vista. They just knew you were supposed to hate it because everyone hates it. If that happens with Metro Microsoft is looking at another 2-3 year 'reboot' and I just don't think they have that much slack left to work with.