> I don't think anyone could have predicted the meteoric rise of Apple, but I think plenty of nerds could have looked at Mac OS 10.1 back in the day and thought, "this is a good bet".
Honestly, this is why I'm skeptical I can beat the market. This was exactly me: I sat down at OS X Jaguar 10.2 and thought, "boy howdy this is great!" and bought Apple stock at less than $40/share.
But you know what? I was wrong. I made money, of course, but for the wrong reasons: the meteoric rise of Apple as a company was due almost entirely to the iPod and then-unannounced iPhone.
Nowadays, of course, after the increase in stature of the company, they're making money from their computers and laptops, but I'm not sure where Apple would be if they didn't make it big with those other products.
Investing in Apple back then would have been like investing in a startup--investing in the engineering culture that made Mac OS X, not the product line itself. They were a company that secured a future from oblivion by making best-in-class stuff in a class with a huge upside for profit. I think a hacker could have seen potential that Wall Street did not.
And, like a startup, they took a number of swings before hitting the iOS home run, except they were also turning a modest profit during the swings.
Everyone should be skeptical that they can beat the market because it is true, there is overwhelming amount of evidence that few people can do it on a consistent basis, even some of the best fund managers.
Also, I think you picked up Apple for the right reason, even if it wasn't the immediate source of their success. For most of us (non-financial types), it is best to gamble on companies that we are familiar with. I play around with stocks on the side, and it should be no surprise that most of my winners were stocks for companies that I was familiar with (i.e used their product), and most of my losers were from stocks that I picked up after reading a crappy financial advice column.
Honestly, this is why I'm skeptical I can beat the market. This was exactly me: I sat down at OS X Jaguar 10.2 and thought, "boy howdy this is great!" and bought Apple stock at less than $40/share.
But you know what? I was wrong. I made money, of course, but for the wrong reasons: the meteoric rise of Apple as a company was due almost entirely to the iPod and then-unannounced iPhone.
Nowadays, of course, after the increase in stature of the company, they're making money from their computers and laptops, but I'm not sure where Apple would be if they didn't make it big with those other products.