We think obesity is basically going to be gone in <7 years. GLP1s don't work for everyone, and the side effects can be severe, but this these drugs are basically safe, and incredibly effective.
This is going to accelerate when every one and their mother (with industrial capacity) starts making generic Ozempic/Wegovy (Semaglutide) next year due to Canada's patent protection lapse[0].
Theoretically, the tidal wave of generic Semaglutide wouldn't hit the US or EU due to patent protections there... But see the aforementioned note about capitalism.
Note that there is already generic Liraglutide as well:
But having any of these available is a step change.
> (...who might be the target market - being overweight might be a disease of affluence)
This might be true on the margin but is mostly untrue these days. The lack of access to healthy unprocessed food and the free time to exercise are becoming increasingly problems for those who are NOT wealthy.
This is the killer feature of Semaglutide and GLP1 Receptor Agonists widely. They were originally commonly thought about as digestion-slowing, and while that is part of it, the real change is that it's a brain drug.
Uh, so, first, I'll say that bariatric surgery is largely a successful (if extremely invasive) intervention. It is not the case that people who do that surgery somehow compensate eat back to the same level -- on average, they don't. And second, the GLP-1s just massively reduce the urge to snack/eat. I'm sure they are less effective for some people than others, but on the whole they are miraculously effective for the population that overate habitually (the obese).
This is going to accelerate when every one and their mother (with industrial capacity) starts making generic Ozempic/Wegovy (Semaglutide) next year due to Canada's patent protection lapse[0].
https://glp1.guide/content/novo-nordisk-patent-protections-l...