(4) Google and Apple couldn't come to terms (or Google refused to provide terms), so Apple put some lipstick on a pig and called it beautiful, knowing (1) would happen as well.
As a product manager, I can't imagine a company being that blind to the real state of the product, so I can't believe (3). Maps is too important for phones today to make (2) believable.
Some aspect of (1) could have influenced what both parties were willing to do in my (4) case. Apple may have said, "It's not worth $XXX million dollars for another contract when we are 50% of the way there, and the last 30% will require a shipped product, anyway, to get all the POI data."
As a product manager, I can't imagine a company being that blind to the real state of the product, so I can't believe (3). Maps is too important for phones today to make (2) believable.
Some aspect of (1) could have influenced what both parties were willing to do in my (4) case. Apple may have said, "It's not worth $XXX million dollars for another contract when we are 50% of the way there, and the last 30% will require a shipped product, anyway, to get all the POI data."