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I was shocked when I saw the price of heat pump installation in the US, even with an existing ducted system. There’s no reason a reversible heat pump system should be significantly more expensive than a cooling only one.




It’s bonkers. I bought a pre-charged ductless mini split to DIY. Took my dad and I about four hours to do the install. So call it 8 hours of semi-skilled labor.

The unit was $1350, I added a line set cover, pad and feet for another $200, and needed about $200 in electrical equipment - it was a long wire run and code requires installing a disconnect box. The only special tool was a hole saw bit for running the coolant lines.

So maybe $1850 all-in, plus 8 hours labor. I’m sure a pro could do it in half the time. But the low end for a pro install is $5k.

I get that they have insurance and warranty or whatever, but that’s a damn juicy margin.


I did the same thing and spent slightly less than you did because I did not need the extra linesets, etc. I was also able to install this in a location that few professionals would have tolerated (interior wall). My thinking was that even if the unit died, I would have saved so much on installation that it wouldn’t even matter. It’s a great unit too. Installation costs are kind of a racket.

It's not that different for other contractors either. That's part of the reason housing prices are so high. As unbelievable as it is, someone must be willing to pay the high prices. Economic inequality is the basic reason for the housing shortage.

If prices are high, that typically means demand exceeds supply. What is preventing supply from expanding to meet demand? Elsewhere in this thread someone mentioned regulation.

Suppose we wave a magic wand and everyone in society becomes equally wealthy. That doesn't solve the fundamental problem of a contractor shortage. It just means we no longer have prices as a method for matching contractors with jobs to the same degree as previously. Without prices being bid up as high, there is less incentive to go into contracting, meaning that the shortage is liable to persist for longer.


In New Zealand a pretty basic 3.5kW (the internet told me that’s about a “ton”) mini split will cost about NZ$2000 including basic installation - that’s with the units on the same wall, ground floor, including the line set cover and running a new circuit if you need one. A 9.7kW model is only $3500. Again New Zealand dollars so halve that for US. Also that includes a 10 year warranty.

I know our labour costs are going to be lower, but not that much lower. Glassdoor indicates that salary for a US HVAC installer is about US$60k, and in NZ a local equivalent says NZ$60k, so I’d expect the numbers to be the same.

Oh and that price includes all taxes and excludes rebates (which most of us don’t qualify for anyway)


I’ve heard similar prices for Europe and elsewhere in the world. The US pricing seems to be uniquely out of step with everywhere else.

Now that you've got some experience, maybe you should start a heat pump installation company :-)

Lol it's protected by the licensing mafia. You'll have to change $5 capacitors for $1000 a pop for 4 years first while being paid peanuts to do it.

Hardly anyone wants to do that so we're stuck with the status quo. You're basically stuck either paying through the nose or finding a family/friend with the equipment and expertise or doing it yourself.


My time is still worth more slinging bits. But if that well runs dry, I’d consider it.

Umm, I encourage you to do that math a little closer. A contractor would have to;

Come to your house to quote, and only land 1/4 quotes maybe.

Schedule the workers

Order the equipment.

Get an electrical permit.

Pay for the truck and all the tools.

Insurance for the company and trucks.

Advertising costs

Warranty and callbacks

I can assure you that this is not the get rich quick scheme you may think it is.


Look up private equity buying up HVAC firms.

It is in fact a get rich scheme.


I thought private equity was all about liquidating nearly bankrupt businesses

That too, but in this case they’ve got a formula for enshitifying local firms.

I don't know why you're being downvoted (it shows as slightly greyed out). This is true. I had a roommate who is a HVAC salesman. Very smooth talked. The 'HVAC' company offers free HVAC maintenance. They techs go in, do some stuff and they point out some problems. Sales guy goes in, smooth talks his way to 5K - 70K bill to most people. Of course, when something goes out and people don't have a choice (like in peak summer or winter), they make out like bandits.

Most of the local firms (Dick's local $town hvac/plumbing/electrical) are owned by massive PE firms (Saudi + other billionaires) which pretty much own the entire businesses all over US. They keep the local name to make people believe they are giving business to a local guy.

Another roommate of mine was a plumber.

The guys who do the actual work get paid close to nothing ($20 - $22/hour) and live on day to day basis.

Plumbing company quoted me $3000 to replace a broken water heater in the middle of peak winter. I paid my guy $300 for labor (heaters are $500 - $1000 from lowes depending on how long of warranty you want) and he was super happy for making a lot of money.


The good local contractors have all the work they can handle on commercial accounts. Residential is an annoyance. That leaves the very small fish (if you can find them) and the PE-owned scam companies.

The equipment is actually a lot cheaper if you’re a pro - the DIY pre-charged line-set adds about $500 over an equivalent unit. Pulling a vacuum and adding coolant is not hard, just requires specialized tools that still aren’t that expensive.

I mentioned warranty and insurance.

You don’t need to “schedule workers” if you are owner operating. Maybe you want a (non-skilled) helper to speed up the install, but you absolutely could install solo. That said, you will need a licensed electrician to run the circuit.

In my metro, hvac contractors can get ten-packs of permits for mini-split installs, and at most one out of ten is inspected. It’s a rubber stamp if you’re a pro, and the individual permit is maybe $50.

And that $5k I mentioned is the low bid, which you’ll only see if you know how to find contractors who aren’t private equity fronts. These guys are not advertising, but they stay busy by having the best price. There are shops that will happily charge you double for the same work.

I never said it’s a get rich quick scheme. It is just highly compensated for owners without requiring the level of expertise of something like a plumber or electrician. I’m curious what is happening in the market to support these margins.


Devils advocate here, it cost me ~$1500 in equipment to buy the vacuum pump, vacuum gauge, nitrogen air tank to flush the lines and pressure test, pressure manifold set and gauge, air lines, good flaring tool, copper bending tool, schrader valve pulling tools, various air tools, and a book on mini split installations.

Then it took me 2 days between pouring concrete pad for the heat pump, installing the heat pump and bolting it in, running the copper lines, drilling the exit hole, running the drain piping, learning how to use all the tools, running the electric and control cables and installing a new breaker and 220 subpanel, pressure testing, vacuum testing, flaring, releasing vacuum and all the stuff you have to do. I also had to spend several nights watching youtube and get a EPA 608 certification for handling refrigant which took another day.

Wouldn't have been worth it for a single unit, but was worth it for installing 3, and now I can do additional units for basically $0 overhead and of course no one would even have to know if I installed it and now I can order unlimited amount of refrigerants to my doorstep.

Having plumbed my entire house, and done my entire house electrical system, I would say the level of expertise to install a mini split is higher than either alone. You have to do electrical, plumbing, refrigerant handling, pressurized equipment handling, be liable for massive federal/EPA fines if you do something wrong, and on top of that I had to do masonry work.


There is a 0.00000% chance of getting into EPA trouble installing one minisplit. You got crews dumping 5 a day into a bucket of water all over and no one will answer a report

It's going to vary by installer, of course, but when I looked into getting a heat pump it was about $1500 more than just replacing the A/C condenser and evaporator with a like-for-like unit. Keeping the existing natural gas furnace as backup. This was in the PNW, about three years ago. $4500 for A/C, $6000 to replace it with a heat pump instead.



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