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Of course not, this is pure speculation just like in past cycles, until it goes bum.


And this time the boooom has a larger blast radius than all the previous booooms combined.


The largest so far. We have always been in a boom/ bust cycle. The difference is that they are coming faster and faster.

I need to figure out the next one.

The famous quote, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent," is widely attributed to the renowned British economist John Maynard Keynes 1883-1946


Keynes died 50 years before this started being a saying. It was made by Gary Shilling.


> I need to figure out the next one.

The date is hidden in the last 8 digits of pi. Should be a snap for a smart person like you.


You know, like all the other booms.


Minus, of course, all the times where it did not go bum, right?


Most people can't get past the kind of logic that declares Facebook doomed for 20 years because Myspace.


Beyond GenX and Boomers who is still using Facebook? We don't live forever.


The last time Facebook reported its monthly active user base they were at 3 billion. [1] So I guess the answer to your question is… everyone?

[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000132680124...


How many of those are real people?


Every bot


A lot of people use it for Facebook marketplace


But what's being discussed isn't usership: it's stock prices.


Such as?


On November 16 2022 Michael Burry tweeted "You have no idea how short I am"

On January 31st 2023 Michael Burry just tweeted out "Sell"

that period was the market bottom, which has rocketed since then. (QQQ more than doubled)


On average, all the time. By any reasonable measure, more wealth has been created the longer the time horizon. Looking at the S&P500 over time gives an indication.


Do you live in a cave? I guess not.

Do you have access to the internet? Seemingly yes.

The booms just tend to be much bigger than the busts.


The internet absolutely went bust. That’s what the dotcom crash was.

Same with a lot of physical infrastructure. The UK has a robust railroad network today, but it was built during a bubble that was so insane people would take loans from banks to invest in railroad stocks.


> The internet absolutely went bust

How does it matter to you? If you had invested in Internet broadly, you would have been WAY better off in the long term. Meaning: your strategy had been to keep investments tied to Internet first companies, you would have done better than pretty much any other person.

Things go up and down but broadly internet went up.


Unless the investment was into worthless paper from those companies, tied to pension funds and similar.


The strategy should be to put money into AI broadly and not necessarily tie to a certain company -- something pension companies already know.

So evidence that internet was a bubble is wrong, it in fact shows that pensions did the right thing by putting money in the internet.


Since you couldn't "put money in the internet", you had to choose some actual companies. Your results varied by which company you chose, and when you invested. (This is always the case, obviously) Sun Microsystems? Let's say you bought the dip at the end of May 2000, at $150. It's ending price when it was bought by Oracle in 2010 was $9.50. [1] Suppose you bought Cisco at the same time for $37.30. You would have waited 18 years, until Aug 2018 for it to reach the same height. Now it's at $127, which over 26 years is an annualized return of 5%. It would have only taken 14 years to break even with Microsoft.

Now, if you had put your money in those stocks 12 months later, you would do okay (except for Sun). So, no, those pensions did not do the right thing by buying at the peak of a bubble. At least, not for people like me who don't like 15 years of negative returns.

[1] https://companiesmarketcap.com/sun-microsystems/stock-price-...

[2] https://companiesmarketcap.com/cisco/stock-price-history/


> Since you couldn't "put money in the internet", you had to choose some actual companies

Why not NASDAQ?


Do I need to dig out newspaper articles from around 2003 - 2008?


How do you suppose those would prove your point?


Now we just take loans to purchase the train tickets.


Yes, and I lost my job during the dotcom crash, so nope.


Great examples.


This is a description of the life itself.




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