This is a faulty analysis, I think. The Atom wasn't originally directly in competition with ARM, they were in different market segments. And it wasn't a case of the atom merely being iterated in design until it matched ARM efficiency levels, that's not what's happened. Instead, the Atom was originally just a low-power stand-alone processor and now Intel has developed a first generation Atom based system-on-a-chip. The fact that Intel's first SoC designs are so closely competitive to ARM's n-th generation designs should send alarm bells ringing throughout the ARM industry. Intel is good at improving design and they are even better at economies of scale.
It's easy to dismiss Intel's offerings as not being competitive with state-of-the-art ARM designs, but only a sucker would dismiss Intel and rest on their laurels. Intel's 2nd and 3rd generation chips are just going to be that much better, and ARM could be in serious trouble in as little as a year or two from now. Imagine, for example, an Intel based android powered tablet that can run stock Windows in a VM or emulate windows and can run most windows applications and perhaps even games, while also being able to run all android applications. And do so at a cost/performance/efficiency level equivalent to any ARM based system. That's the sort of thing that should send shivers down the back of Samsung or even Apple.
Indeed. It would also be a serious error to assume that anyone will be on Intel's leading edge process any time soon. At some point there is a process node that only Intel can afford to develop, and ARM makers are going to just sit there on their old process, whic might be cheaper but isn't going to be as efficient.
ARM CPU's outsold Intel CPU's in volume well before tablets and smartphones started using them.
If I remember correctly, projected volume of ARM CPU's for this year is in the region of 3 billion units.
The smartphone and tablet market is not even near being the majority of ARM CPU sales. So I don't think ARM will despair over Intel's designs just yet.
Volume is not profit. Intel is an order of magnitude more profitable. However, ARM's model seems to be to suck the profit out of the market. It's a textbook example of a paradigm shift, with an initially inferior product offered at a much lower price point gradually catching up with the market leader. Intel has no choice but to follow ARM down the price curve to settle at a lower profit margin. They seem to have realized this with their current chip strategy. I would be looking at intel to start diversifying into the device market, because that's where the profit is moving.
A lot more: From Wikipedia: "In 2011, ARM's customers reported 7.9 billion ARM processors shipped, representing 95% of smartphones, 90% of hard disk drives, 40% of digital televisions and set-top boxes, 15% of microcontrollers and 20% of mobile computers."
That roughly matches my memory of previous recent years' reported sales.
>Imagine, for example, an Intel based android powered tablet that can run stock Windows in a VM or emulate windows and can run most windows applications and perhaps even games, while also being able to run all android applications.
If we're going that far, we should imagine an iPad that is also a Mac.
That's not far at all. If they can manage to get their shit together and provide a reasonable user experience, the day when a Mac (not necessarily all Macs) run the same OS and the same apps as iPads and iPhones is not far off.
Also, it is not a far off prospect at all, since the Surface Pro tablet will run Windows 8 Pro (on a Core-i5). It'll be able to run almost any windows app, even photoshop or visual studio (or MS SQL for that matter).
Its not really a SoC in any meaningful sense, other than integrated GPU and memory controller (which most CPUs have now) is it? Compared to ARM SoCs which are very highly integrated so you more or less have to wire up power and RAM.
It's easy to dismiss Intel's offerings as not being competitive with state-of-the-art ARM designs, but only a sucker would dismiss Intel and rest on their laurels. Intel's 2nd and 3rd generation chips are just going to be that much better, and ARM could be in serious trouble in as little as a year or two from now. Imagine, for example, an Intel based android powered tablet that can run stock Windows in a VM or emulate windows and can run most windows applications and perhaps even games, while also being able to run all android applications. And do so at a cost/performance/efficiency level equivalent to any ARM based system. That's the sort of thing that should send shivers down the back of Samsung or even Apple.