I believe you're wrong here.
If you modify a hardlinked file, the FS will create new inodes under the hood, leaving existing ones intact. So it's like CoW. At least on ext4.
// Didn't double-check, but I've held this belief for over decade now, would be surprised to be proven wrong
No this is completely incorrect. The filesystem doesn’t break a link just if you open it. Your editor or higher level utility is free to do so (by unlinking and copying the data into a new file/inode), but this is not how the filesystem works.
// Didn't double-check, but I've held this belief for over decade now, would be surprised to be proven wrong