Commodity software income trends to zero, especially as competitors enter the market and trim away the features that are unwanted, leaving a minimal (fast to develop) product behind.
I don't actually believe that B2C software for "average consumers" where user pays for software is a viable market outside of certain markets (e.g., antivirus updates). The incentives are simply too aligned with gratis software doing something acceptably well for the vast majority of people, probably ad-supported. patio11 recently linked an article about selling to flies/mice/deer/elephants. It's really worth reading.
I firmly believe that the only games in town over the next 5-10 years for financial revenues from software are:
1. ad-supported mass market (E.g., gmail)
2. B2C niche (e.g., Bible study software)
3. B2C SaaS (backup software, dropbox, Google apps)
4. B2B SaaS (most of web stuff)
5. B2B desktop/server - usually 1-time fee + maintenance over a few years.
B2C Desktop buy-once and run is pretty extinct, afaict. For me, it's been replaced by libre software like LibreOffice, Emacs, and Firefox.
Commodity software income trends to zero, especially as competitors enter the market and trim away the features that are unwanted, leaving a minimal (fast to develop) product behind.
I don't actually believe that B2C software for "average consumers" where user pays for software is a viable market outside of certain markets (e.g., antivirus updates). The incentives are simply too aligned with gratis software doing something acceptably well for the vast majority of people, probably ad-supported. patio11 recently linked an article about selling to flies/mice/deer/elephants. It's really worth reading.
I firmly believe that the only games in town over the next 5-10 years for financial revenues from software are:
1. ad-supported mass market (E.g., gmail) 2. B2C niche (e.g., Bible study software) 3. B2C SaaS (backup software, dropbox, Google apps) 4. B2B SaaS (most of web stuff) 5. B2B desktop/server - usually 1-time fee + maintenance over a few years.
B2C Desktop buy-once and run is pretty extinct, afaict. For me, it's been replaced by libre software like LibreOffice, Emacs, and Firefox.